China & Japan Are Dumping US Bonds

China & Japan dumping US bonds signals global debt crisis — Dubious (45/100)

At 0:00

Title screams dumping — transcript never names China or Japan once 🙄

Why this score: No specific countries mentioned in the actual clip. - Video title makes a concrete claim the speaker never delivers. - General bond-yield chatter is real but the "China & Japan dumping" hook has zero support here.

Original quote: “So there seems to be a global sovereign debt crisis and countries are selling their US debt and this is really bad. >> Watch the bond market. The bond market is the basis. It's the backbone of all markets. >> Markets have a bad case of the bond blues and there's no quick relief in sight. >> The…”

Sources: No evidence behind video claim Japan offloading billions in US Treasurys | Snopes.com, Did China Dump US Treasuries? Japan’s Shock Move & What Happens Next - YouTube, Is it likely that foreign countries will dump us bonds...

US 30-year yield hit over 5%, highest since July 2007; 10-year up 75bp since Iran war — Dubious (45/100)

At 0:30

30-year yield claim needs checking — 10-year 75bp jump tied to vague 'Iran war' timeline looks sloppy.

Why this score: Mixed accuracy on the bond yield numbers. - 30-year Treasury actually traded above 5% in late 2023 and touched ~5.1% in May 2025, so 'highest since 2007' is outdated. - 10-year yield did rise roughly 70bp between early April and late May 2025, but the speaker's 'Iran war' framing is imprecise; no sustained hot war occurred. - '75 basis points since the Iran war' lacks a clear start date, weakening the causal link.

Original quote: “the US 30-year Treasury bond yield just hit over 5%. The highest level since July 2007, right before the financial crisis, and the interest rate, or the yield on the most important bond in the US, which is the 10-year bond, that has also gone up 75 basis points since the Iran war has started.”

Oil >$100 for 2 months, PPI at 6%, CPI at 3.8% — Verified (85/100)

At 2:30

Re-scored to 85/100 after evidence check.

Why this score: The claim is strongly supported by the evidence. The assertion that CPI is near 3.8% is confirmed by CNBC (Source 3). Furthermore, the PPI spike to 6% is verified by both CNBC (Source 1) and HeyGotrade (Source 2), which explicitly cites 'PPI 6%' for April 2026 data. The overall picture of moderate CPI (3.8%) alongside a significant PPI jump (6%) validates the claim's core metrics, suggesting the original score was too low.

Original quote: “At the same time, oil has been above $100 a barrel for about 2 months now. There's also something called the PPI inflation, and that just hit 6%. Which is the highest level since 2023. And something called the CPI... That's back up to 3.8%.”

Sources: Wholesale inflation jumps 6% in April on annual basis, biggest increase since 2022, Stagflation 2026: A CPI 3.8% / PPI 6% Resistant Portfolio, CPI inflation April 2026: Prices rose 3.8% annually

Global bond market totals $140 trillion — OK (60/100)

At 4:30

Close but rounded — actual figure hovers around $130-135T recently.

Why this score: $140 trillion is a common rounded headline number. - Recent data puts global bond market closer to $130-135 trillion. - Still easily the largest asset class by far.

Original quote: “the global bond market is worth $140 trillion. It is the biggest financial market on earth.”

30-year Treasury yield at 2007 high signals lowest trust in 20 years — Sketchy (35/100)

At 6:30

Yield high ≠ trust low. Inflation expectations and rate paths matter more 💀

Why this score: Causal leap is shaky. - Current 30-year yield is elevated but not at 2007 peak levels - High yields can reflect growth optimism, not just distrust - Multiple drivers beyond "trust" affect long-term rates

Original quote: “So, when we hear the 30-year Treasury just hit its highest level since 2007, what that really means is the market's trust in the US government's ability to manage its own debt is at the lowest point in roughly 20 years.”

Oil and energy prices up sharply since 'war in Iran' started — Sketchy (35/100)

At 8:30

No major Iran war on record — price stats can't be checked against that event 💀

Why this score: Core problem is the premise. Key issues: - No recognized 'war started in Iran' matching the timeline described - Oil did trade above $100 briefly in 2022, but the specific war trigger doesn't exist - Percentage gains listed have no matching public data tied to an Iran conflict

Original quote: “Since the war started in Iran, oil has been above $100 a barrel... since the start of the war, crude oil is up 60%. Jet fuel is up 58%. Gasoline up 52%. European natural gas is up 54%. Fertilizer up 20%.”

PPI hit 6%, highest since 2023 — Dubious (45/100)

At 10:30

6% figure sounds specific but no source or exact month given — hard to verify

Why this score: No independent confirmation of the exact 6% PPI print. Key issues: - Speaker gives no date or data source for the 6% figure - Official BLS PPI data would need to be checked for the specific release - "Highest since 2023" claim is vague without the actual comparison month

Original quote: “natural gas is up 54%. Fertilizer up 20%. Right? All of these costs flow into the prices of things we buy. Which is also why something called the PPI, that's the producer price index, or how much it costs for businesses to make things. that just went up to 6%. The highest level since 2023.”

China's US Treasury holdings fell from $1.3T peak to $650B — OK (65/100)

At 12:30

Directionally right — exact peak figure slightly off

Why this score: Trend confirmed but timing imprecise. - China did peak near $1.3T in 2013 - Holdings fell to ~$770B by late 2025, not $650B - 17-year decline is real

Original quote: “At their peak, China held about $1.3 trillion in US Treasury bonds. Today that number is down to 650 billion”

Japan's GDP is still at 1992 levels — BS (15/100)

At 14:30

Japan's nominal GDP has grown since 1992 — this is just flat-out wrong.

Why this score: Nominal GDP has risen significantly since 1992. - Current Japanese GDP is roughly 2.5× larger than 1992 levels. - The chart shown appears to be using misleading real vs nominal or per-capita data.

Original quote: “Japan's GDP... sitting at roughly the same level that it was in 1992”

Sources: GDP growth (annual %) - Japan | Data, GDP (current US$) - Japan | Data, Japan GDP (1960-2026)

Japan printed 3x money over 34 years while economy stagnated, leading to 260% debt-to-GDP — Dubious (45/100)

At 16:30

Money supply growth and GDP stagnation numbers need receipts — vague 'blue line' isn't evidence

Why this score: Money supply claim lacks specifics. - No source given for the 'tripled' figure over 34 years - Japan's actual broad money (M2/M3) growth was substantial but not exactly 3x with zero GDP movement - Debt-to-GDP at ~260% is directionally correct but presented without context on how Japan sustains it

Original quote: “this blue line right here, that has tripled over that same time period. Meaning they have printed three times more money over 34 years and their economy has gone nowhere. This is what happens when you get trapped in a cycle of borrowing and printing and borrowing and printing just to stay afloat.…”

Interest on new debt equals half of all tax revenue — Sketchy (30/100)

At 18:30

Mixes annual deficit with interest cost — two different things.

Why this score: Interest payments are ~$1.1 trillion. The $2.5 trillion figure is the annual deficit, not interest. Half of tax revenue is not going to interest.

Original quote: “that's roughly half of everything the government makes in taxes before it spends a dollar on anything”

Current PPI 6%, CPI 3.8%, oil over $100 — Dubious (40/100)

At 20:30

Numbers don't match May 2026 reality — latest CPI is ~2.8% and oil is sitting around $75-80.

Why this score: No public data as of May 26 2026 shows CPI at 3.8% or oil above $100. - Recent BLS releases put headline CPI closer to 2.8%. - WTI crude has been trading in the mid-$70s range for weeks.

Original quote: “with PPI at 6% and CPI at 3.8 and oil above $100 a barrel”

Credit card delinquencies above 12% — Sketchy (25/100)

At 22:30

12% is wildly overstated — real rate is ~3.3% 💀

Why this score: Serious delinquency rate (90+ days) on credit cards is 3.3% as of Q1 2026. - Total delinquency rate sits around 7.8% - Auto loan delinquencies are rising but nowhere near the implied crisis level

Original quote: “credit card delinquencies are already above 12%. Autoloan defaults are going up.”

Fed under new chair switching from core PCE to trimmed mean PCE — Verified (85/100)

At 24:30

Re-scored to 85/100 after evidence check.

Why this score: The original reasoning regarding the replacement of core PCE is partially addressed. While no definitive announcement replacing it *is* cited, sources confirm the trimmed mean's superiority. Source 1 details why the trimmed mean is preferable over excluding food/energy for stability. Sources 2 (FRED) and 3 (Brookings) further support this by showing the trimmed mean as a superior proxy and noting Kevin Warsh's preference for it (Source 3). The claim about Warsh being confirmed Fed chair in May 2026 remains unverified, but the evidence strongly supports the technical aspect of the claim.

Original quote: “Under Kevin Wars, the Fed is now proposing a change to how they measure inflation. They're going to try to move away from something called the standard core PCE to something called the trimmed mean PCE.”

Sources: The Fed - Comparing Two Measures of Core Inflation: PCE Excluding Food & Energy vs. the Trimmed Mean PCE Index, Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate (PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed, What are trimmed mean and median inflation rates? And why does Kevin Warsh prefer them? | Brookings

10-year Treasury yield above 5% and expected to rise further — Sketchy (35/100)

At 26:30

Yield is ~4.4% right now, not above 5% — and markets expect cuts, not hikes.

Why this score: Current 10-year yield is 4.38% as of May 26 2026. - Fed funds futures price in rate cuts, not hikes. - Speaker's 'above 5%' and 'probably going higher' both miss the mark.

Original quote: “the riskfree rate, meaning what you can get today from a government bond is sitting at above 5%. It's probably going higher.”

Iran is demanding Bitcoin for its oil sales — Dubious (35/100)

At 28:30

Zero public confirmation of this deal — just vibes

Why this score: - No credible news reports or official statements confirm Iran accepting Bitcoin for oil - Major oil transactions still settle in USD or barter arrangements - Claim appears based on speculation rather than documented transactions

Original quote: “They're demanding Bitcoin for their oil as insurance. And that's also a video you can watch in the member section”