How To Know You’re Going To Lose Money In Crypto
Credibility score: 69/100 — Mostly Credible. Mixed credibility - some claims are solid, others need verification.
BSmeter analyzed "How To Know You’re Going To Lose Money In Crypto" and rated it 69/100 for credibility (a BS score of 31/100 — mostly credible), on 2026-04-27. Its weakest claim — "FET ATH ~$347 Mar 2024, now ~$23, down 90%" — scored 35/100 and was flagged as sketchy. 30 claims were checked against the video transcript. Scores are produced by BSmeter's AI analysis of the transcript, not independent human verification.
Claims analyzed
Retail investors become exit liquidity after insiders dump; price up ≠ real demand — Opinion (50/100)
Classic crypto sermon — true enough to hurt but preaches to the choir 🙄📉
Chasing 500% surges signals you'll lose money — Opinion (50/100)
Classic FOMO trap — spot on for retail bagholders 🚩
Thin bids + leveraged longs make reversal inevitable — Opinion (50/100)
Dramatic 'mathematically inevitable' — common crypto pattern tho ⚠️
Retail absorbs insider sells in exit liquidity — Solid (80/100)
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Rebrands to chase hot narratives aren't innovation — Opinion (50/100)
Sharp callout on narrative rotation — cynical but fair take 😏
Path DAO rebranded to Virtuals after 99% crash — Verified (95/100)
✅ Spot-on history
Virtuals Protocol rebranded, launched at $0.03, hit $5.7 ATH Jan 2 2025, +16,000% — Solid (82/100)
ATH close enough, numbers track 👌
Virtuals corrected 87% by April 2025; tech unchanged, just narrative shift — Solid (78/100)
Narrative pump real, drop matches data ✅
FET/ASI surged 31.6% past 30 days on AI narrative — Dubious (45/100)
FET down 90% overall, 30-day surge? Unverified 📉🚩
UNI collapsed 19.4% past 30 days, 50pt spread vs FET — Dubious (48/100)
UNI monthly down? Web says slight upticks recently ⚠️
ZachXBT leaked spreadsheet of 200+ influencers' paid promo campaign in Sept 2025 — Verified (95/100)
✅
FET ATH ~$347 Mar 2024, now ~$23, down 90% — Sketchy (35/100)
ATH $3.47 not $347, now $0.23 not $23 💀🔥
160 influencers, <5 disclosed, 97% non-disclosure, payments up to $60k — Verified (92/100)
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K-rounds give influencers discounted tokens to dodge disclosure — Solid (82/100)
Checks out 👌
Polkadot Treasury spent $87M in H1 2024, $37M marketing, $5M to 17 KOLs at $28k/month — Solid (85/100)
👌💯
Community audit found Polkadot-funded influencers had bot followers, low real engagement — OK (65/100)
Plausible community critique — bots in crypto promo? Classic 🚩
Arkham tracks 800k+ entities, 800M+ wallets on 12 chains with entity labeling — Verified (95/100)
✅😤
Tokens from vesting to intermediate address to exchange = insider distribution — Solid (80/100)
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90% of token unlocks correlate with price drops starting 30 days prior — Solid (85/100)
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Unlock value >2.4x avg daily volume = insufficient liquidity for price stability — OK (65/100)
Solid logic but 2.4x feels cherry-picked ⚠️
$12B tokens unlocked in March 2026, 3x monthly average — Dubious (45/100)
Recent claim — where's the receipt? 🤨
Team/early investor unlocks cause high sell pressure due to zero cost basis; community treasury unlocks lower risk — Solid (85/100)
👌✅
High TVL with low fees signals incentivized/recursive deposits, not real activity — Solid (88/100)
👌💯
Checklist: parabolic price w/ low volume; narrative pivot without milestones — OK (65/100)
Solid red flags, but 'six indicators' checklist is opinionated framework ⚠️
Token unlocks >5% supply in 90 days (esp. team/early) are major red flag — Solid (82/100)
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Weak onchain fundamentals: low fees vs TVL, declining addresses, MC/TVL >5 predict losses — Solid (80/100)
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All altcoins below 200-day MA; ARB -44.7%, WLD -47% — OK (65/100)
Specific %s sound precise but no sources shown ⚠️
Pepe/ARB up 10.9%/9.5% in 30 days but 40-49% 3-month drawdowns — Dubious (45/100)
Short-term bounces in downtrends? Possible but those exact #'s unverified 🚩
Influencer payments increasingly documented, narrative playbook repeats consistently — Solid (80/100)
✅👌
Use checklist for verifiable data to avoid being exit liquidity — Opinion (50/100)
Solid advice, but sounds like every crypto guru's TED talk 🙄
See the full analysis with sources and timestamps →